In January 2021, the statistical output of lithium iron phosphate reached 20630 tons, compared with 4660 tons in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 342.7%! After a year, like a world away, the volatility of the iron-lithium industry can be described as huge.
However, although iron-lithium production has hit a record high, it is still far from meeting the downstream demand. Since February, the supply-demand relationship has further deteriorated due to the suspension of production by individual companies. It has become more and more common for battery factories to send personnel to iron-lithium enterprises to “watch production”. It is not empty talk that iron-lithium materials are hard to find.
The main reason for the substantial increase in demand for lithium iron phosphate is the large-scale expansion of several battery factories in the head.
Judging from the expansion progress of lithium iron enterprises, we expect that the actual launch of new production capacity will have to wait until the second quarter, and the large-scale launch of new production capacity will definitely be until the end of this year to early next year. A state of relative shortage. Which is
On the whole: Fe-lithium materials will be extremely scarce in March.
On the one hand, the battery factory’s full-load production status has not changed, and the demand is huge.
On the other hand, the inventory of mainstream iron-lithium plants has been in a hurry, and it is impossible to make up for the supply shortage through inventory.
The biggest problem is that the new expansion projects cannot release production capacity for the time being, and the new supply may not come out until April to May.
At that time, there was a tendency to give higher subsidies to high-energy-density batteries, and the market turned to ternary materials. As a result, new expansion projects of lithium iron phosphate since 2016 have been suspended or idle, and it has experienced up to 3 years of production capacity. The surplus period.
Since 2020, with the gradual withdrawal of subsidies, the cost advantage of lithium iron phosphate has emerged, and the market has begun to turn to iron-lithium materials again, resulting in a shortage of iron-lithium materials, and ternary surplus.
On the whole: the violent fluctuations in policies will have a significant impact on the industry’s production expansion cycle, and will eventually lead to a mismatch between supply and demand and affect the long-term development of the industry. This should be paid attention to.